The return of the Taliban to power in Kabul in August 2021 was not just a change in leadership; it was a pivotal moment that redefined Afghanistan’s internal dynamics and reshaped its relations with neighboring Pakistan. The fall of the U.S.-backed government and the Taliban’s swift takeover introduced new layers of geopolitical uncertainty, complicating a relationship already mired in historical tension, security dilemmas, and economic fragility. Despite shared cultural, religious, and ethnic ties, the relationship between Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has since grown more complex and, in many ways, more precarious.
Historically, the two countries have shared a volatile yet interdependent relationship. Due to its geographic position, Afghanistan acts as both a strategic buffer and a corridor for trade. Since the 1979 Soviet invasion, which brought millions of Afghan refugees into Pakistan, bilateral ties have oscillated between cooperation and confrontation. The Durand Line, the colonial-era boundary separating the two nations, remains one of the most contentious unresolved issues. With the Taliban back in power, these long-standing challenges have resurfaced, this time compounded by a new wave of militant activity, border disputes, and a humanitarian crisis.
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The Taliban’s return was initially welcomed by some in Pakistan who saw an opportunity for influence in Kabul. However, the optimism quickly faded as Pakistan found itself dealing with renewed cross-border attacks and diplomatic indifference from a Taliban regime that was less cooperative than expected. Rather than acting as a stabilizing partner, the new Afghan administration often appears unable or unwilling to address Pakistan’s legitimate security and economic concerns.
One of the most critical issues is the Durand Line. Spanning over 2,400 kilometers, the line cuts through Pashtun tribal areas and has historically been a source of friction. Afghanistan has never officially recognized this border, and Taliban leaders have not deviated from that position. The construction of fences by Pakistan to control cross-border movement has frequently led to violent skirmishes. In 2022, tensions escalated in areas like Spin Boldak and Chaman, where border clashes not only disrupted trade but also threatened to trigger broader military confrontations. These recurring disputes highlight the underlying mistrust between the two governments and the Taliban’s unwillingness to accept internationally recognized borders formally.
Another major concern is the growing threat of militancy emanating from Afghan soil. Since 2021, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which shares ideological ties with the Afghan Taliban, has ramped up its attacks inside Pakistan. While Kabul officially denies harboring militants, evidence suggests that TTP fighters continue to find refuge and operational support within Afghanistan’s borders. In response, Pakistan has undertaken cross-border strikes targeting terrorist hideouts, such as those in Khost and Kunar provinces in 2022. These operations, although aimed at neutralizing security threats, have only added to diplomatic friction. The Taliban has publicly condemned such strikes, further straining bilateral ties.
Pakistan also faces the burden of an expanding refugee population. The Taliban’s return to power triggered a fresh wave of displacement, pushing thousands more Afghans across the border into Pakistan. Already home to over three million Afghan refugees from previous decades of conflict, Pakistan’s resources are stretched thin. The international community has responded slowly, leaving Pakistan alone to bear the social and economic burden. The pressure has prompted Islamabad to adopt stricter refugee policies and call for repatriation, often facing criticism from humanitarian groups. Nevertheless, without adequate support or a stable political situation in Afghanistan, the refugee crisis is unlikely to ease anytime soon.
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Economic relations have also suffered under the new regime. Trade between the two countries, once seen as a pillar of bilateral cooperation, has declined due to instability, border closures, and a lack of formal banking channels. The Taliban’s isolation from global financial systems, coupled with sanctions and the absence of recognition, has paralyzed economic engagement. Frequent closures of major border crossings like Chaman and Torkham, often due to security threats or political disputes, have disrupted supply chains and harmed local economies. Though mutual interest exists in maintaining trade ties, practical challenges remain overwhelming without policy coordination and political stability.
Beyond these tangible disputes lies a deeper concern about the Taliban’s ability to govern effectively and maintain internal stability. The regime’s hardline approach, particularly toward women and minorities, has isolated it internationally. More importantly for Pakistan, the Taliban’s limited administrative capacity raises fears that Afghanistan could once again become a breeding ground for extremist elements. With groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) also gaining traction, the risk of Afghanistan descending into chaos has regional implications. Pakistan has repeatedly urged Kabul to adopt a more inclusive and pragmatic approach, but such calls have largely gone unheeded.
From Pakistan’s perspective, the post-2021 environment has not delivered the strategic depth or influence some policymakers hoped for. Instead, Islamabad finds itself more complicated and uncertain, where diplomatic outreach often yields limited results. The Taliban’s failure to curb TTP activities and its refusal to formally accept the Durand Line have become serious roadblocks to improving ties. Even areas with potential for cooperation, such as trade and regional infrastructure, remain hostage to trust deficits and security concerns.
Critically, both countries are at a point where dialogue is essential. Escalation benefits neither side. Pakistan’s decision to repatriate Afghan refugees, conduct military strikes, or tighten border controls may be necessary from a security standpoint. Still, they also risk isolating Kabul further and pushing the Taliban closer to other regional actors. At the same time, the Taliban must recognize that stability and recognition are impossible without addressing Pakistan’s core concerns. Cross-border militancy, refugee management, and trade facilitation require institutional mechanisms and diplomatic maturity that have been absent from Kabul’s approach.
In conclusion, the relationship between Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan remains one of the most complex and consequential in the region. While cultural and religious affinities run deep, they have not been sufficient to overcome political disagreements and security threats. Since 2021, both nations have seen a deterioration in trust, fueled by unresolved border disputes, rising militancy, and economic paralysis. Moving forward, a framework for constructive engagement, driven by mutual interests and regional cooperation, is necessary and urgent. Without it, both countries risk continued instability, missed development opportunities, and worsening public sentiment on either side of the border.
