The aftermath of Pakistan’s 2024 elections has not ushered in an era of stability, but rather entrenched a political order defined by its inherent fragility. The current landscape, shaped by a contentious electoral process and culminating in a tenuous coalition government, presents a critical juncture for the nation’s democratic health. At the heart of the matter lies a triad of interconnected challenges: the functional viability of a power-sharing arrangement between historic rivals, the persistent specter of political instability fueled by deep-seated polarization, and a precipitous decline in the legitimacy of the state’s core institutions. The government, a construct of political necessity rather than popular mandate, now presides over a deeply fractured polity where the very foundations of the democratic process are subject to intense public scrutiny and doubt. This arrangement, far from being a resolution to the preceding years of political turmoil, appears to be a temporary truce that fails to address the systemic fault lines that continue to widen.
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The political environment leading into the February 2024 polls was already fraught with tension. The removal of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government through a vote of no-confidence in April 2022 set in motion a period of intense political confrontation. The subsequent campaign was characterized by a systematic effort to dismantle the PTI’s political structure, with its chairman imprisoned and its candidates facing significant legal and administrative hurdles. The election itself failed to produce a decisive winner. Independent candidates, the vast majority of whom were backed by the PTI, secured the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, a testament to the party’s enduring popular support despite the state’s pressure. However, without a unified party platform, they were unable to form a government. This paved the way for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), two dynastic parties with a long history of animosity, to forge an alliance reminiscent of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) that had previously ousted the PTI. This coalition, however, is built on shaky ground, representing a convergence of elite interests aimed at securing power rather than a shared vision for national progress.
The governance structure that has emerged is a complex and potentially unwieldy machine. The PML-N holds the premiership, but its reliance on the PPP for a parliamentary majority creates a dynamic of dependency that complicates decision-making. Initially, the PPP’s decision to support the government from the outside on key issues, without taking cabinet positions, effectively rendered the administration a minority government. This arrangement, while allowing the PPP to maintain a degree of political distance and avoid direct public accountability for unpopular policies, places the PML-N in a perpetually vulnerable position. Every significant piece of legislation, particularly the harsh economic reforms required under negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), becomes a point of intense negotiation and potential compromise. The risk of policy paralysis is significant, as the government must constantly appease its coalition partners, whose political calculations may not always align with the administration’s agenda. This transactional relationship, devoid of ideological coherence, is susceptible to political blackmail and can be undone by a shift in strategic interests, leaving the government and the country in a state of perpetual uncertainty.
This inherent structural weakness of the coalition directly feeds into the broader challenge of political instability. Pakistan is now more polarized than at any point in its recent history. The 2024 election did not resolve the central political conflict but instead transferred it from the streets into the legislative chambers. The PTI, despite being institutionally marginalized, commands a formidable presence in parliament through its supported independents. This bloc constitutes a large, vocal, and aggrieved opposition that fundamentally questions the legitimacy of the ruling coalition. Consequently, the national political discourse is not one of constructive debate over policy but a zero-sum game focused on political survival for the government and vindication for the opposition. This environment precludes the possibility of building a national consensus on the formidable challenges facing the country, from economic reforms to national security.
The economic consequences of this instability are profound. A government perceived as weak and temporary is unable to inspire the confidence of domestic and international investors. The constant threat of collapse deters the long-term capital investment necessary for sustainable growth. Negotiations with international financial institutions like the IMF become more difficult, as lenders question the government’s ability to implement and sustain difficult reforms. While some macroeconomic indicators have shown improvement, such as inflation dropping from a high of 29.7 per cent in December 2023 to 4.1 per cent by December 2024, the underlying structural weaknesses of the economy persist. The industrial sector continues to struggle, and any economic gains are fragile and easily reversible by a fresh wave of political turmoil. The government is compelled to make unpopular choices to secure financial assistance, but its weak political standing means that the public discontent generated by these measures further erodes its authority, creating a vicious cycle of economic pain and political instability.
Perhaps the most damaging legacy of the 2024 election is the severe erosion of public trust in the institutions responsible for upholding the democratic order. The process has cast a long shadow over the credibility of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). Widespread allegations of pre-poll manipulation, coupled with the unprecedented delay in the announcement of results and the controversial use of mobile network shutdowns on polling day, have created a strong perception of a managed outcome. The ECP’s decision, upheld by the Supreme Court, to strip the PTI of its iconic cricket bat electoral symbol just weeks before the election was a particularly contentious move. For a significant portion of the electorate, this was not a procedural technicality but a deliberate act to disenfranchise voters and engineer a specific result, undermining the ECP’s role as an impartial referee.
The judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court, has also seen its standing compromised. Its role in the pre-election period, including the ruling on the PTI’s party symbol, has been interpreted by many legal and political analysts as an intervention that blurred the lines between law and politics. Critics argue that the decision represented a form of judicial overreach that effectively disenfranchised a major political party and its supporters. When the highest court in the land is perceived as an active participant in the political arena rather than a neutral arbiter of constitutional principles, it damages the very fabric of the rule of law. This perception of a compromised judiciary, whether accurate or not, is corrosive, as it suggests that justice is subject to political expediency. It weakens a critical pillar of the state designed to protect fundamental rights and hold power to account.
Underpinning these concerns is the pervasive belief in the continued, albeit less overt, role of the military establishment in shaping political outcomes. Despite public declarations of neutrality, the formation of a government that explicitly excludes the party with the largest electoral showing is seen by many as a clear sign of political engineering. This perception reinforces a long-standing narrative in Pakistan that civilian governments rule only at the pleasure of the establishment. The dynamic cripples the potential for genuine democratic development, as it subordinates the popular will to the strategic interests of an unelected institution. It fosters a political culture of dependency among civilian leaders, who may seek favour from the establishment rather than building a solid base of popular support. The result is a hybrid system where the formal structures of democracy exist, but their substantive power is constrained, and their legitimacy is perpetually in question.
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The confluence of a weak coalition, deep-seated political instability, and declining institutional legitimacy creates a self-reinforcing crisis. A government that lacks broad-based legitimacy finds it exceedingly difficult to implement the painful but necessary reforms required to stabilize the economy. The political opposition, feeling cheated of its mandate, has little incentive to cooperate and every reason to obstruct. The erosion of trust in the ECP and the judiciary means there are no credible institutional mechanisms for resolving political disputes, forcing conflicts onto the streets and further destabilizing the country. This volatile environment also has serious security implications. Domestic turmoil and a preoccupied state apparatus create openings for militant groups, such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), to regroup and intensify their activities, particularly in the border regions.
Looking ahead, the path for Pakistan is fraught with difficulty. The current political stability is superficial, masking deep structural problems that have been exacerbated by the flawed 2024 electoral process. The survival of the current coalition government is by no means assured, but its collapse would likely trigger another period of intense uncertainty without resolving the underlying issues. A durable solution cannot be found in short-term political maneuvering or transactional power-sharing deals. It requires a fundamental reset of the political system. This must begin with a genuine and inclusive national dialogue aimed at lowering the political temperature and agreeing on a new charter of democracy that establishes clear rules of the game. It requires comprehensive electoral reforms that can restore public faith in the sanctity of the ballot box. Most importantly, it necessitates a firm and lasting commitment from all state institutions, including the judiciary and the military, to operate strictly within their constitutional domains and respect the mandate of the people. Without such a fundamental reorientation, Pakistan risks remaining trapped in a debilitating cycle of political crises, economic stagnation, and institutional decay, with profound consequences for its future as a democratic and prosperous state.
