In the evolving geopolitical landscape, the time-tested partnership between Pakistan and China stands at a pivotal crossroads. While strategic cooperation remains the cornerstone, emerging regional alignments, global power shifts, and internal policy recalibrations are reshaping this historic relationship. This editorial explores the multi-dimensional dynamics of Pak-China ties considering global developments, exploring economic cooperation, military synergy, diplomatic balancing, and regional implications, particularly amidst rising Indo-Pacific tensions and growing US-India strategic closeness.
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Since the early 1950s, Pakistan and China have shared a deep-rooted bilateral relationship grounded in strategic trust, regional security convergence, and mutual economic interests. The famous slogan “higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the oceans, and sweeter than honey” reflects the emotional and political depth of this alliance. However, over the decades, the friendship matured into a comprehensive partnership, particularly after the signing of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2015.
However, the global political landscape is rapidly transforming. The rise of China as a global power, growing US-China rivalry, redefined foreign policies under new governments in both Islamabad and Beijing, and India’s increasing assertiveness with Western support have introduced new challenges and opportunities. As the world slides towards multi-polarity, Pakistan finds itself re-evaluating its traditional alliances and diversifying its foreign policy toolkit while maintaining its historic ties with Beijing.
The Strategic Importance of CPEC in a Shifting Global Order
CPEC remains the centerpiece of China’s engagement with Pakistan. It is a flagship project of BRI and symbolizes the economic interdependence of both states. As evidence, with more than $62 billion invested, CPEC has transformed Pakistan’s infrastructure, especially in energy and road networks. Moreover, the Gwadar Port, strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, offers China access to the Arabian Sea and facilitates its maritime ambitions.
However, CPEC faces headwinds: Security threats in Baluchistan and Chinese concerns over project delays have led to a slowdown in new investments. Moreover, the IMF-mandated economic tightening and domestic political instability have further delayed projects. Yet despite these hurdles, China continues to support CPEC as a symbol of long-term partnership. Moreover, in the changing geopolitical environment, the corridor acts as China's buffer against encirclement by Indo-Pacific alliances, and Pakistan serves as a vital node in China's westward pivot.
Military and Defense Cooperation: The Unwavering Pillar
Defense ties between Pakistan and China have grown remarkably, serving as the bedrock of strategic trust. As an evidence, Pakistan is the largest importer of Chinese weapons, with about 74% of its arms coming from China (SIPRI, 2024). Moreover, joint ventures like the JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, submarines, and drone technologies show robust military-industrial cooperation. Similarly, regular joint military exercises, such as "Sea Guardians", enhance interoperability and send strong signals to regional adversaries. Although in the evolving Indo-Pacific theatre, where India’s defense cooperation with the US, France, and Israel is deepening, the Pak-China defense axis serves to maintain regional equilibrium. Nevertheless, this is not just tactical but part of a broader strategic deterrence framework.
Diplomatic Synchronization Amid Global Realignments
China has often defended Pakistan on international forums, particularly regarding Kashmir and FATF grey listing, while Pakistan endorses Beijing’s positions on Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. For example, in 2020, when India revoked Article 370, China raised concerns at the UN Security Council, echoing Pakistan’s stance. Meanwhile, Pakistan, in turn, supported China’s policies in Xinjiang despite Western criticism. However, growing Chinese pragmatism and economic interests in India are leading to a more nuanced approach. Beijing has adopted a "de-hyphenated" policy in South Asia, maintaining engagement with both New Delhi and Islamabad. Similarly, Pakistan’s increasing outreach to Gulf states and Turkey, along with its ties with the West, has compelled Islamabad to maintain a delicate balance between strategic loyalty and diplomatic flexibility.
Geo-economics Dependency and the Debt Diplomacy Debate
Pakistan’s mounting external debt, $125 billion in 2024, of which over 30% is owed to Chinese institutions, has sparked concerns over economic sovereignty. For instance, critics argue that CPEC has increased Pakistan’s debt vulnerability, aligning with Western accusations of China’s “debt-trap diplomacy". However, a 2023 report by the Centre for Global Development debunked the myth, noting that China has offered favorable loan rescheduling and grants, unlike harsher IMF terms. That said, economic dependency is a valid concern, particularly when Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are barely enough to cover two months of imports. To counter this, Islamabad is seeking a diversified donor portfolio including Gulf states, the IMF, and multilateral institutions. Hence, while China remains Pakistan’s largest bilateral lender, policymakers are cautious not to appear overly reliant, an imperative in a dynamic global economy.
Emerging Geopolitical Shifts: The Indo-Pacific and Pakistan’s Strategic Dilemma
The US-led Quad (India, US, Japan, Australia) and growing defense ties between Washington and New Delhi aim to contain Chinese influence in Asia. Moreover, India’s strategic alignment with the West has led to massive defense acquisitions, enhanced naval presence in the Indian Ocean, and stronger cyber-surveillance partnerships. In stark contrast, in response, China is deepening its presence in the Arabian Sea, with Pakistan playing a crucial role.
For Pakistan, this is a tightrope: It seeks to avoid becoming a theatre of great power rivalry, especially amid a fragile economic environment. While maintaining closeness with China, Islamabad is also seeking renewed ties with the US, particularly for economic assistance and trade. Therefore, Pakistan’s foreign policy is now geared towards multi-alignment rather than exclusive alliances, reflecting a matured diplomatic posture in a multipolar world.
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Despite historical warmth, the Pak-China relationship is not immune to realpolitik. Both nations have entered a phase where pragmatism supersedes sentimentality. China’s focus on internal economic recovery and global trade diversification means that it will likely adopt a cost-benefit approach towards all regional partnerships, including Pakistan. Similarly, Pakistan's internal instability and security lapses may continue to test China's patience. However, both countries understand the strategic necessity of the relationship, especially considering regional polarization. Thus, the future of their bond depends not on nostalgia, but on the capacity to adapt, economically, diplomatically, and strategically.
In conclusion, in a world shaped by geopolitical flux and strategic recalibration, the Pak-China relationship remains a cornerstone of South Asian stability and cooperation. While the bond is tested by economic strains, regional rivalries, and shifting alliances, it is also evolving, maturing into a more balanced, pragmatic, and multifaceted partnership. CPEC, military collaboration, diplomatic support, and shared geopolitical goals ensure continuity. However, both states must embrace reforms, enhance transparency, and navigate global transformations with strategic foresight. As the world enters a new chapter of power politics, the Pak-China friendship must become not just a legacy, but a forward-looking alliance driven by mutual benefit and shared vision.
